I spent two hours yesterday arguing with a service manager about a DEF header replacement that should have been covered under warranty. We eventually split the difference. Nothing like fighting over a thousand bucks while three million dollars of iron sits idle in the mud.

THE NUMBER

+18.5%

Used excavator inventory levels in the 15 to 25 metric ton class are up 18.5% year over year.

That number comes from the latest Sandhills Global market report for early March 2026. Auction values in this specific weight class dropped 4.2% in February alone. It is the sharpest single month decline we have seen since late 2023.

This means the backlog is finally breaking. Dealers are sitting on late model trade ins they bought too high last year. If you need a 20 ton digger, the market just handed you all the leverage.

THIS WEEK'S STORY

What ConExpo 2026 Actually Means for the Person Buying Iron Next Quarter

The show wrapped March 7. Over 140,000 people, 128 countries, 3 million square feet. Every OEM brought their best. The headlines wrote themselves: autonomous this, AI-powered that, next-generation everything. And almost none of it is on a dealer lot near you yet.

The Autonomy Story Is Real. The Timeline Is Not.

Caterpillar's Cat CS12 soil compactor is genuinely the first production-ready autonomous compactor from a major OEM. It is not a concept — Cat is selling it. But "selling it" and "you can order one today at your local dealer for a reasonable premium" are two different things. Same goes for HD Hyundai's Real-X autonomous excavator system, Komatsu's updated PC220LCi-12 with full 3D grade integration, and Develon's next-gen autonomous digging demos. Every major player showed autonomous or semi-autonomous capability in Las Vegas. That is a signal, not a ship date.

The Contractors' Choice award for best equipment went to Husco's GenSteer — a retrofit steering system you can add to machines you already own. That result is more honest than most of the press coverage. Contractors voted for the thing they could actually put on existing iron. That is where real adoption is happening.

The Rename Nobody Is Talking About

Hitachi Construction Machinery used ConExpo to announce it is rebranding as Landcros in North America. Same orange paint. Same model numbers. Different name on the decal. Hitachi Ltd. sold off its construction equipment stake in 2022, and the unit has been signaling more independence ever since. Nothing changes today for existing Hitachi fleet owners. But if you are evaluating a new excavator purchase, you need to figure out what a Landcros dealer network looks like in two years when parts and support start to split from the old Hitachi infrastructure. Worth a conversation before you sign.

Cat's Services Play Is the Real Move

Buried under the autonomy demos, Caterpillar announced a hard services commitment: next-day parts delivery, two-day repairs, and a credit program for every instance where they miss. If you have ever sat down four days waiting on a hydraulic pump for a 336, you understand what that commitment is actually worth. But more importantly, understand what Cat is doing strategically: they are making the dealer service relationship so sticky that switching costs go up significantly at renewal time. Cat Compact, their new program targeting smaller contractors, runs the same play at the light end of the market. This is not altruism. This is Cat making it harder for you to justify non-Cat iron.

THE BRIEF TAKE:

ConExpo 2026 confirmed what anyone paying attention already suspected — autonomy is not coming, it is here, and the OEMs are racing to own the entire operating relationship, not just the iron. The mistake is treating this as a product cycle. It is a services and data cycle. If you are evaluating a machine purchase in the next 12 months, the questions are no longer just about horsepower and uptime. Ask what telematics platform it locks you into, who owns the data your machine generates, and what it costs to get out. That is the deal on the table now, even if nobody in the booth puts it that wayThe power dynamic flipped. Dealers spent three years dictating terms and prices because they had the only iron in town. Now they have carrying costs and depreciation eating their margins. If you are buying this quarter, be ruthless on price.

QUICK HITS

Small Iron: Takeuchi debuted the TL11-R3 at ConExpo — biggest CTL in their lineup, first with electric-over-hydraulic controls. Bobcat unveiled the Jobsite Companion, an AI system giving operators real-time machine diagnostics and site guidance from inside the cab. Kubota's SVL110-3 was widely expected after dealer video leaks last fall. No official announcement yet, but the show floor buzz says it is coming this year.

Big Iron: Komatsu's strongest North American lineup in years: PC220LCi-12 and PC365LC-11 excavators plus a brand-new articulated dump truck making its North American debut. The WA475-11 and WA485-11 wheel loaders also broke cover. On the Cat side, the 319 excavator, AP10-55 paver, and new 150 and 160 motor graders all showed in the Operator Stadium alongside the autonomous CS12.

Ag: John Deere officially unveiled the redesigned 1 Series compact utility tractor for 2027. New features include an optional HVAC cab and ergonomic upgrades. Not flashy, but the 1 Series sells in enormous volume. Meaningful quality-of-life update for operators running these machines daily.

Mining: Caterpillar rolled out a redesigned 6015 Mining Shovel targeting 5.5% or greater fuel savings. Standard bucket linkage autolube and a tougher undercarriage and slew bearing are the practical improvements. In a high-cycle operation, 5.5% fuel savings on a machine that size adds up fast.

DEALS & MOVEMENTS

  • Sunbelt Rentals listed on the NYSE on March 2 at $73.79 per share, completing its separation from London-listed parent Ashtead Group. The second-largest equipment rental company in North America now has a direct U.S. equity price to track. Investors in the "heavy assets, low obsolescence" trade pushed Ashtead's London shares up 14% in February alone before the split.

  • Herc Rentals posted Q4 total revenue up 27% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, with full-year equipment rental revenue climbing 18% to $3.8 billion. Revenue from used rental equipment sales was up 64% for the full year to $509 million — meaning Herc is pushing a lot of used iron out the door at a premium, which is part of why the retail used market looks thin right now.

  • Alex Lyon and Son opened a 15-day online Canada auction on March 11 featuring late-model Cat rental fleet machines — excavators, forklifts, crawler tractors, wheel loaders, and more. This is a direct fleet dispersal. Watch what the excavators clear for a live read on current Canadian market values.

  • Nonresidential construction input prices jumped at a 7.1% annualized rate in January per an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Copper wire, iron, steel, and industrial controls drove most of the move. Steel and aluminum tariffs are currently sitting at 50% on all imports, and those costs are showing up directly in bid prices.

  • EquipmentShare went public on the NASDAQ, becoming the fourth publicly traded large-scale equipment rental company in North America alongside United Rentals, Sunbelt, and Herc. Their first earnings report has not been filed yet. The public valuation will now put a hard number on whether their tech-forward fleet management story holds.

ONE PRACTICAL THING

The ConExpo Autonomy Reality Check: Three Questions Before You Buy

Every OEM in Las Vegas just showed you autonomous or AI-assisted capability on their new iron. Most of it will not be at your dealer in volume for 12 to 18 months. But machines available right now come with telematics and "intelligent" features that carry long-term strings. Before your next purchase, run these three questions.

One: What platform does this machine's telematics lock you into? Cat is VisionLink. Komatsu is SmartConstruction. Deere is JDLink. These are not interchangeable. If you run a mixed fleet, getting your whole operation onto one dashboard may be impossible, or very expensive. Find out before you sign.

Two: Who owns the operational data your machine generates? Hours, cycle counts, fuel burn, GPS tracks — ask explicitly what the OEM retains and what you retain if you sell the machine or switch brands. This is increasingly a negotiating point on large fleet purchases.

Three: What is the actual cost delta for the autonomous feature, and what is the specific labor or rework saving you are buying? Grade control on a dozer at $25K extra pays back fast on a grading-heavy operation. Autonomous compaction at $80K extra needs different math. Run your actual cycle counts and operator cost before you let a demo in an air-conditioned stadium make the decision for you.

THE LUNCH ROOM

SIGN-OFF

That is the Saturday read. ConExpo dust is still settling and the real conversations — what actually got ordered on the show floor versus what looked good on stage — will filter through dealer networks over the next few weeks. If you went to the show, I would genuinely like to hear what moved you. If you did not, tell me what you are watching in your market right now. Hit reply.

— MachineryBrief

Published every Wednesday & Saturday  ·  Reply anytime  ·  machinerybrief.com

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